Wednesday, February 24, 2010

No smoke without fire

The Falklands War between Britain and Argentina happened in the year 1982. I was born in that year and my only knowledge about this conflict comes from the various History Channel documentaries I have seen.

But this post is not about the Falklands War; its about how seemingly unrelated pieces of information from unrelated sources always has some some connection! There is definitely no smoke without fire!

This past Saturday, I read in the Mint Lounge (according to me, the best weekend English read) a travelougue by Wendell Rodricks titled "You need visa power: Ahead of a 51-day cruise around South America, the merry-go-round begins at home"

It was a good read which described both the awesome nature of such a journey and the idiosyncrasies of all the visa related hassles. But here is the thing, it had this one small piece of information about visa problems for visiting Falklands Islands.

Meanwhile, Argentina was throwing a fit: “Your ship is going to the Falklands. We don’t recognize that name. Reapply with ‘Islas Malvinas’.” I curse the Falklands War and reapply with newly attested fingerprints and affidavit.

I remember thinking about the Falklands War as I read this and wondering if there was some new conflict brewing these days.

Lo! And behold I read in the Times,UK today about rising rhetoric and tension about the Falklands! Here is an excerpt from 'Troubled Waters'

Britain is sensibly playing down talk of a new war with Argentina. Since the Falklands conflict in 1982, London has slowly but steadily rebuilt its relations with Buenos Aires, now an important trading and political partner. But the Government has made it quite clear that the islands and access to them are, and will be, defended in the face of any new threat from the mainland.

Argentina’s declaration that it will do all it can to prevent the drilling for oil in Falklands waters must be dismissed for what it is: foolish bluster, provoked by dreams of oil wealth under the seas and intended to divert Argentine public opinion from the failings of President Cristina Fern├índez de Kirchner’s floundering administration

I am having immense (for lack of a better term) sense of deja vu about this. This smoke and fire quotation makes too much sense!

Also, the power of travelogues is immense, don't you think?

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Giddy heights...

My fascination for climbing tall building and looking down at the land and people below is an old one. I was already fascinated by buildings and had tried to reach the highest floor of tall buildings in my hometown of Bangalore, when I read the romantic interpretation of the skyscraper as an epitome of human achievement in Ayn Rand's The Fountainhead and I was hooked. There is something about a tall building that is surreal - it literally and figuratively takes you above and beyond the mundane and the trite.

This fascination for reaching the top floors of tall buildings continued, and when I was in Singapore, I remember pestering my friends to accompany me in trying to get to the top of some random skyscraper. One hilarious incident took place when I forcefully took a bunch of friends up the elevators of a tall building in the Raffles area of Singapore. We ended up on the topmost floor accessible through the elevator only to find that there was no view to be had, as this was the lobby of one of the offices in the building. Although, I was mildly disappointed that there was no 'view from the top' to be had, it filled me with excitement to feel my ears pop at the altitude! But, this of course did not satiate my need to 'reach the top' and towards the end of my stay in Singapore, my friend and I did manage to go up to the 71st floor of the Swisotel building, Singapore's tallest, to the New Asia Bar, and my glee was visible!

Another experience in heights was when I visited Kuala Lumpur and went up the Menara Kuala Lumpur, or KL tower. Although, shorter in height than the Petronas Towers, which I could not climb due to unavailability of tickets, it was nevertheless a tall building and I enjoyed every moment of being on top of it.

People who know me, clearly know my dislike for Dubai as a city. It is, according to me, very pretentious and tries very hard at being a tourist friendly place, but it is not. For a skyscraper enthusiast though, there can be no going around the fact that the tallest building in the world is now in Dubai and I am itching to go see it - from the top. I remember going to the base of the construction site of the Burj Khalifa in early 2009, when it was still being constructed and being awestruck at its height.

My inherent fascination for tall buildings, combined with this inspiring comparison about the Burj Khalifa's design being inspired from Frank Lloyd Wright's unbuilt Mile-High Illinois makes it irresistible to my skyscraper fetish. (Frank Lloyd Wright, who it has been noted by Ayn Rand herself, as being the inspiration for the character of Howard Roark in The Fountainhead, adds compelling incentive)

The Burj is American in another way. Most of the coverage of the Dubai tower has focussed on its height and its location, but it is also an interesting design. The form is not a minaret, like the Petronas Towers, or a stylized spire, like the Taipei Financial Center. Smith (who is no longer with SOM) and Baker have not produced an elongated cluster of shoe boxes like the Sears Tower, a high-tech-construction like Norman Foster's Hearst Tower, or a twisty sculpture a la Santiago Calatrava. Instead, they have opted for a distinctly unfashionable organic form, a sort of stalagmite. Many observers have noted the similarities between the Burj and Frank Lloyd Wright's unbuilt 1956 proposal for a 528-story state office building for Chicago's lakefront, which he christened the Mile-High Illinois. Wright's design is twice as high as the Burj, but there are distinct parallels. Both buildings are constructed of reinforced concrete; both have floor plates that reduce in area as the building rises, producing a stepped-back silhouette; both have a treelike central core that rises the full height of the building to become a spire. And both use a tripod design: The Mile High is triangular in plan, and the Burj has three wings that act as buttresses.

I'm not sure if the famously prickly Wright would have considered imitation the sincerest form of flattery, but he would have been pleased to see a version of his conception take shape in the Middle East, which was the site of one of his most spectacular unbuilt projects. In 1956, the government of the young king of Iraq, Faysal II, aiming to modernize the city of Baghdad, commissioned a number of leading Western architects: Walter Gropius for a new university, Alvar Aalto for the national gallery, and Le Corbusier for a stadium and sports complex. Wright was invited to build the opera house. The Old Wizard, as his biographer Brendan Gill called him, produced an astonishing interpretation of Scheherazade on the Tigris, a circular opera house surrounded by colonnades and water gardens, and topped by an open spire containing a statue of Aladdin and the wonderful lamp. Shortly after the design was completed, King Faysal and his family were murdered in a military coup, and the new regime abandoned the project. Fanciful proposals, such as the Baghdad Opera House and the Mile-High Illinois, are usually regarded as slightly off-key, the day dreams of a master in his dotage. The Burj suggests that the Wiz still has lessons to teach us.

(Read the complete article here)

Monday, November 02, 2009

Travel on my mind

I can by no account be called a traveler, for I have been to very few places in this world; although in my mind, I am a wanderer, a person who likes to explore and a person who knows geography - as it is shown in maps and recounted in the numerous travelogues and history books, I have read.

But more or less, since the time I last posted on this blog, my travel quotient has been higher - I have had the opportunity to go to few places, and all these have left me with richer knowledge, unforgettable experiences and above all a great sense of being!

I do not know when I will get around to writing a travelogue for all these journeys, but here are some photographs which tell the story as well -

  1. Journey in the Konkan - Ratnagiri, Guhagad, Ganapatiphule, Chiplun
  2. In Durian Land - Kuala Lumpur
  3. Amongst the Rajputs - Jaipur
  4. Rooftop of the World - Leh
  5. Beach cocktail - Goa
I came across this wonderful article by Pico Iyer (amongst many books, the author of The Global Soul; which I think is a superb book every traveler should read) about Somerset Maugham, titled The Perfect Traveler.

Here is a superb description of what I agree should be the characteristics of a perfect traveler, from this article -

The perfect traveler must be a perfect contradiction. She should be open to almost everything that comes her way, but not too ready to be taken in. He should be worldly, shrewd, his feet firmly on the ground; but he must also have the capacity to give himself over to moments of real wonder. He or she must be curious, observant, spirited and kind—ready to spin a spell-binding tale of adventure and irony at the Explorers’ Club, and then throw it all over for a crazy romance in the South Seas.

The above characteristics and an attitude as described by Robert Frost in "The Road not taken"(in its philosophical but also in its literal sense) are my prescription for a traveler!

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

If half the world were sterile...

I came across this interesting article by David Brooks in the New York Times. It talks about a scenario where one half of the entire population of the Earth, is rendered sterile due to some hypothetical, freak Solar 'incident'. What would happen in such a situation? I tend to agree with the author that the fabric of society would disintegrate - majority of the human race lives on the premise that "I am living today, to make my tomorrow better". In a situation where entire populations of a continent does not have a tomorrow, there will not be any shards of moral fabric left in them, to help them distinguish between right and wrong.

I found this particular excerpt very powerful -

Instead there would be brutal division between those with the power to possess the future and those without. If millions of immigrants were brought over, they would populate the buildings but not perpetuate the culture. They wouldn’t be like current immigrants because they wouldn’t be joining a common project, but displacing it. There would be no sense of peoplehood, none of the untaught affections of those who are part of an organic social unit that shares the same destiny.
But, of course, that’s the beauty of this odd question. There are no sterilizing sunspots. Instead, we are blessed with the disciplining power of our posterity. We rely on this strong, invisible and unacknowledged force — these millions of unborn people we will never meet but who give us the gift of our way of life.

It is in this context that we should view crackpot schemes which are usually proposed by crazy, dictator wannabes. It has been said rightly that "Power corrupts; And absolute power corrupts, absolutely". Those who are power hungry, even for the sake of the 'common good' (the main raison d'etre of most governments around the world) are easily corrupted by this very same 'common good'.

Distrust those who claim to offer these global panacea. There is a rot of corruption behind them.

Hat Tip: Marginal Revolution - where the discussion first started!

Monday, December 22, 2008

"Ceteris Paribus & in Hindsight, we were right!"

Mint has an article today about an American journalist's perspective on how Indian banks avoided the global economic crisis.

The basic premise of the article is the author's 'mea culpa' reaction which Americans, the US Feds and specifically Alan Greenspan should have. The 'No regulation in the banking sector stand' which the above mentioned "culprits" had maintained, in comparison to the "prudent and timely controls" by the State (read RBI's ex-governor YV Reddy) in India, is the main reason why Indian banks are safe, while American and Eurpoean ones aren't.

The author interviews India's top bankers who are partayed as being very 'perplexed' about how the Americans could have been so 'greedy'. They compete with one another in having a 'our garbage don't stink' smugness when they gesticulate about how Indian banks are more regulated and hence - 'safe from greed'. They all seem to accept that had they been shown the carrot of deregulation, they would most probably have gone ahead and 'sinned' just like the American banks. They all seem to agree, that while they opposed RBI's stringent measures at the time they were being introduced, in hindsight they thank RBI that they did not have the 'temptation to sin'. One of them even goes on to say that the RBI governor saved them!

There you have it folks - India's top bankers agree that they are children who need to be 'shown the right way' at every step, lest they should fall prey to the evil, greedy temptations that are by the wayside!

I find this attitude revolting - but who is to blame for our apparent lack of morals and self regulation in the absence of a grand regulator? Well, the answer is simple - the regulator.

While the article gives due credit to YV Reddy's foresight of 'applying brakes too early than too late', I find the complete lack of comparing the two situations in the right context, apalling! One needs to compare oranges with oranges, after all.

The crux of the problem in the US economy is the government sponsored push towards increased home ownership. This push by the US state to over-promote homeownership has been the 'prodigal push to the stack of dominoes' which eventually lead to Fannie and Freddie becoming over aggresive mortgage lenders, to the over exposure to subprime borrowers, development of CDOs and all those other weapons of financial mass destruction. The important fact one needs to observe here is that the crux of the issue starts with government interferring in the working of the market. By artificially trying to boost homeownership, the government essentially lets loose excessive corporate risk taking - this is essentially what happened.

Robert Shiller in the book "The Subprime Solution" analyses this very problem and rightly points out that -

"Overly aggressive mortgage lenders, compliant appraisers, and complacent borrowers proliferated to feed on the housing boom. Mortgage originators, who planned to sell off the mortgage to securitizers, stopped worrying about the repayment risk. They typically made only perfunctory efforts to assess borrower's ability to repay their loans - often failing to verify borrower's income with the Internal Revenue Service, even if they possessed signed authorization forms permitting them to do so."

The reader, here would kindly note that a regulatory enviroment existed. The borrowers were essentially required to authorize the lender rights - to verify the borrower's ability to repay the loan. But in an environment where checking if a borrower can repay, would have hindered the mortage lender's chances of 'closing a deal', a lot was let slip between cup and lip. Afterall, there was the Big Brother State standing behind mortgage lenders like Fannie and Freddie waiting to write-off bad assets, you see.

Does my arguement here then mean that in India there is no government sponsored boost for home ownership? The answer is, partly yes. As one CEO-designate of one of the largest banks in India tells the author -

"Indian banks are not levered like American banks. Capital ratios are 12 and 13%, instead of 7 or 8%. All those exotic structures like CDO and securtization are a very tiny part of our banking system. So a lot of the temptations didn't exist"

Luckily, it seems that the Indian State has not got behind the 'increasing home ownership' bandwagon. While HDFC has been a private player (majority stake) in the Indian mortgage market it has not come under pressure from the government to boost home ownership and therefore no apparent need to take excessive risks by creating money out of thin air using CDOs and other weapons of mass financial destruction.

The housing real estate market in India has to a large extent grown due to growth in Indian economy, not due to subsidies given by the government. Therefore it has not been a 'government generated boom'. As Murray Rothbard elucidates - the 'bust' in the business cycle is usually causally linked to the earlier government generated 'boom'. The market economy is self correcting and will quickly eliminate the earlier government generated errors in investment, unless the process of adjustment is interfered with by government policies. (Source)
Also, one needs to evaluate the relative sizes and trend of the two economies being compared. I am currently involved in an assignment which is trying to study how Indian consumers are responding to the global recession - and the main problem I face, is ascertaining whether Indian consumers are in fact, facing a pinch like their western counterparts. The growth in the Indian economy and the new affluence which many Indians have witnessed as a result, is making the Indian consumer somewhat of a contrarian.

Considering many such differernt nuances about the nature of the Indian and American economies, I think it would incorrect to heap all the praise on the strict regulatory environment of the Indian banking regulators as the main reason why Indian banks are safe vis-a-vis American banks. That would be assuming that Ceteris Paribus all other conditions are the same between the two economies. Unfortunately, with the case of central macro economic planning, the only way to prove something would be based on what has, by luck, turned out to be a better strategy, in hindsight.

God forbid, if the same Indian bankers were asked by the government to start lending money to people wanting to increase home ownership, the same incentives which drove the 'greedy' American banker might tempt our bankers too. Would not happen in India you say? Read this.

"The government, on its part, also infused Rs 4,000 crore into the housing sector through National Housing Bank (one of the reasons for LIC Housing Finance cutting its rates) and forced PSU banks to slash home loan rates for new loans of up to Rs 20 lakh.

The steps taken by the government and the RBI were also aimed at reviving the housing sector which is struggling because of the slowing economy"

So it begins...

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Three articles that are worth reading.

Here are three articles I find very interesting.

1. 'Macroeconomics is Complete Bunkum' - by Bill Frezza: For a free market supporter and a strong follower of the Austrian School of Economics like me, this article rings as being very true. As the author mentions, it is only Hayek, Rothbard and other Austrian School economists like Menger who advocated the futility of the use macroeconomic statistics and its direct result - central planning. I say down with this macroeconomic, central planning nonsense! Viva Liberty!

(Hat Tip to Mr. Sadowski in the RCM comments)

2. 'Our Friends in Bombay' - by Christopher Hitchens: Staying true to my earlier call that people around the world need to be continually sensitized about the regular nature of terrorist attacks in India - the most by any standard, outside of a war zone - I find this article as a superb piece of straight talk by Mr. Hitchens.

3. 'Eye Spy' - by Priya Ganapati: Finally! Here is something I have always hoped would happen. A camera in the eye! As a photography enthusiast, one of my regular complaints is the fact that in the presence of a camera, people being photographed, stop being 'themselves' and pose. While I accept that it is a mark of a great photographer who can prevent his subject from doing this, I have hoped many times that the camera become invisible. Like an extension to ones' eye. Well, a camera in one's eye socket is the closest to this dream as can be!

Sunday, November 30, 2008

My Story...

It has been a long time now, and I have seen it all. I was born in early December in the year ninteen hundred and twenty four when the Nation I was born in, was still a hostage. It was hostage under an imperial dynasty which was weak and waning in its superiority around the world, and to make itself feel great, I was conceived. I was concieved in honour of a British King, but my favour has always been to the Grand City and the Nation I was born in. And what a Grand City it is, where my foundations are rooted - Bombay!

Ah! Bombay - the city of oppulence, the city of poverty, the city of trade, the city of love, the city of glamour, the city of an undying spirit and above all the city of dreams. The dreams of a scores and scores of my countrymen from the hinterland and scores of others from around the world. A coastal gateway to the magnificence that is India. This is the city I was born in and the city that I have seen grow to great heights, all the time being the very fuel feeding in to this vast nation's engine. And I have seen the strength which my country has gained.

I was there on the day our country gained Independence from the imperialists and I sighed a sigh of relief and of victory. I stood witness as the last regiment of the Imperial army beat a retreat past me, and sail away from the shores of Bombay, and away from the shores of India. I stood there that day with my grand elder brother - a magnanimous gentleman, who was born a few years before me, in defiance of the very imperialists who were retreating that day. And boy, did we rejoice that day - for we knew what a nation like ours could achieve in freedom.

We have stood, my brother and I, during all these years - witnessing our young nation grow. But we have also seen her suffer and cry out in pain; but we have stood steadfast in our patriotic duty to our nation - my brother as a great, grandeur host to all the leaders and businessmen of the world, with me welcoming all those who wish to enter our great city and nation. For the last sixty one years of our young nation's independence we have stood in service and have done so proudly.

During these years we have heard our city cry in pain when being subject to many atrocities against her. We have stood witness to many cruel and evil people try to undermine the very fabric of our city's gene - and also seen them fail. They have tried to demonstrate through thier impotent, evil and sinister ways that they can hold the enterprising nature of our citizens hostage. Through fear and terror they have tried to shut down our thriving businesses and disrupt the very way of our lives. They have repeatedly tried forcing us into believing that we will fail in our free enterprise and in growing up to be a thriving business market. It has always been they who have failed. Over these years I have personally seen the various atrocities they have tried to bring us on our knees. I have seen mindless riots acted out within yards of where I stand and also I have seen bombs go off in plain view. And I have seen the mindless impotence which has been thrust at our very faces, hoping that it will permanently discourage us.

But I have never seen my city succumbing to any of this. But instead I have seen my city resurgent always - I have seen it fight this terrible evil in a unique way; by proving to the evil doers that nothing they can do will perturb us from believeing in our capability to grow and be free. I have seen both the wealthy businessmen and the struggling street food vendor come back to the very places where henious crimes very committed and be guests of my brother's and my hospitality. I have seen throngs of people light candles and hold protest and also hold each other's hands in unity. I have seen young lovers looking at the vast expanse of the Arabian sea, eager to know what magnificence the future holds for them. I have seen old couples looking at the same expanse of the Arabian sea, thankful for the gifts they have earned through their long lives, gained through hard work. I have seen photographers capture the happiness of families on their vacations and of people marking the passing of their loved ones by strewing the ashes in the sea. And my brother and I have stood in the background of these memories, always happy to welcome all those who wish to come to our city and nation and partake of its greatness and for those who want to contribute to it. And all of them have looked upon our welcoming arms and thanked us for our graciousness.

But it is with a profound sense of grief that I stand this past week for I have witnessed a horrific scene. I have seen my brother's hospitality besieged and held hostage. I have seen his head set on fire by exploding grenades. I have seen evil men, dock their boats full of explosives in my dock. I have witnessed maniacs shoot weapons on the courtyard which cause loud horrific noises, where the loudest sounds usually is that of a group of cheering school girls on a vacation. I have stood witness as many of my city's guests have been brutally killed and my brother's furniture set ablaze. I have witnessed my brother's body burnt and scarred. I have witnessed my winged friends - the pigeons who rest in our courtyard, scared away by the sound of gunshot and blazing fire. I have witnessed the vile impotence of the men who perpetrated this henious crime and the sixty long hours they held my brother's hospitality hostage.

I have witnessed the worst days of my life.

I am in Mourning. I am the Gateway of India.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Ten suggestions to get out of this rut

How to prevent this incident in Mumbai over the past two days from being forgotten in a couple of days time; when for instance, some starlet wears a blouse which displays her cleavage. Here are my suggestions,

  1. Online Activism: Many journalists are net savvy and have large readership amongst net users. There should be blogs, twitter pages, Facebook communites which keeps the readers updated and provide opportunity to contribute to change
  2. Media Persistence: I sincerely believe that people do not forget such things, unless a more atracting carrot is dangled in front of them. There should be a regular section on every primetime news production to update, everyday on the developments on the investigation of the case
  3. Seek Foreign Interest: I saw a reporter on TV this morning saying that this will have a significant impact on the international opinion because foreigners have been targeted. Call me opportunist and biased, but we Indians have an affection when we are discussed by westerners and we should use tis opportunity to get the international community to see that there is no other place in the world, where there is a terrorist attack every week, and there is hardly a hue and cry. Apart from condolence messages and overtures about how two nations are united in their efforts to fight terror, nothing ever happens. Atleast the public does not know about it. It is time we know, because believe me when I say this, its not the government which is under trouble, its the common man.
  4. Canvas to Think Tanks: Around the world and in India, the politician always has his political party and the idealogical party. The change in attitude needs to come from the idealogues. The idealogical party is the 'school' for politicos. These breed the new generation and they need to come sensitized to these issues. Both in India and abroad
  5. Remove Economic Barriers to Trade: Terrorism is a symptom of the terrorist weighing his and his extended communities, opportunity cost. Humans are inherently self loving people. If we have an opportunity to positively influence our own lives through economic activity and trade we will choose it. It is only because of restrictive trade practices that some people don't see a profit motive and hence resort to other things. All the notions of freedom fighting is not relevant if it does not pertain to individual liberty. One man's freedom fight may be another's terrorism, but in fact it is each man's fight for individual liberty that matters in the long run
  6. Be Apathetic to certian things: When the controversy over Da Vinci Code's blow to Christianity was being discussed, the author Dan Brown made a great observation. It was only since the publication of his book that religious groups started recognizing that their beliefs were under threat. He said that it was not his book that will kill religion, but apathy towards it. We spend time being apathetic towards the terrorists until they cause a commotion. We should be apathetic to irrationality and kill it, not apathetic towards the terror attacks.
  7. Educate the Children: About the principles of Liberty. Every child should know that he can do anything he wants to; as long as he does not cause harm to another. "Your Right to Swing Ends Where My Nose Begins"
  8. Educate the Children: About responsibility. Every man is the cause of all that he experiences. Most people have issues with others, with groups, with idealogies. But in the end it is how one individually responds and reacts to things that makes the difference. Teach them to adapt a constructive approach.
  9. Educate the Children: That government is an abstraction for delegating responsibility of actions which individuals cannot influence. And it has been grossly overused. Each person can individually decide what is good for him in the market, about trade and commerce. The government should not have this responsibility, nor can it have a positive influence in the true sense. Governments should restrict themselves to their prime function - protecting its citizens from physical harm by others and protecting property rights. My actions cannot influence (in a big way, individually) when it comes to preventing terrorists from comadeering police vans and shooting at me. This I appoint a government to help me against. I can however decide how much money I need to save and how much I consume and how I price the intellectual capabilities I have, in free trade. I know what perception of value is, in an exchange.
  10. Have Active Minds: We are told from the days we are born that we should have an open mind towards everything. Objectivist thought neatly points out that an open mind to everything is an open mind to even a bad idealogy - say for instance, racism. Have an active mind. It is only man's intellect which distinguishes him from the other animate creatures and he has to make use of this mind actively and 'Reason' it out.
Viva Liberty!

"The Crown Jewel on Fire"

For Mumbaikars and anyone who has been to this historic city, a trip to the glorious site of the Gateway of India is like a pilgrimage. Not just another attraction in the area is the Taj Mahal hotel, overlooking the Gateway and the beautiful Arabian Sea. It is one of India's symbols of prosperity and enterprising nature. It is a symbol of all that is good about the wealth and eminence of Indian entrepreneurship.

Today, 27th November 2008, this 'Crown' has been set of fire. I have written before, about terrorists and the impotence which personifies their action, when my hometown of Bangalore was attacked.

And I think it makes sense to repeat that here.

"It should be very clear that the perpetrators of this heinous crime cannot hide behind any ideology since such attacks do not warrant any. It is weak cry by a few pathetic human beings whose only response to any form of competence is a blaring and violent display of their impotence. An impotence characterized by a lack of constructive capability, satiated by such pre-meditated acts of indiscriminate violence. "

I disagree with the call that Mumbaikars will keep taking things 'In their Stride'. It is a call which should be rejected outright.

People cannot be held at hostage like this.

In any case this is how I would like to remember the beautiful Taj hotel in Apollo bunder, in my favorite part of Mumbai!

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

'Broken Window' theory and Mumbai's litter problem

I am guilty for I have littered. But its only because others did it too!

I use Mumbai's suburban railway network to commute to and from work everyday. I also eat the absolutely delicious chana, singg and other sinful treats which are served on platforms. I also face the problem of disposing the paper cones they come in, once I am done eating the contents . There are no dustbins in the trains. Sometimes I carry them home in my pocket and dispose of them in the dustbins there, but mostly I litter the platforms.

Like the rest of them.

I feel bad for doing it, but I say to myself - hey, there is so much litter and filth all over Mumbai that what harm could one additional little peice of paper do?

Does this sound familiar? If yes, we are all providing more evidence to strengthen the 'Broken Window' theory which a group of researchers from Netherlands have just proved.

"The idea that observing disorder can have a psychological effect on people has been around for a while...

It was this effect that his experiments, which have just been published in Science, set out to test.

His group’s first study was conducted in an alley that is frequently used to park bicycles. As in all of their experiments, the researchers created two conditions: one of order and the other of disorder. In the former, the walls of the alley were freshly painted; in the latter, they were tagged with graffiti (but not elaborately, to avoid the perception that it might be art). In both states a large sign prohibiting graffiti was put up, so that it would not be missed by anyone who came to collect a bicycle. All the bikes then had a flyer promoting a non-existent sports shop attached to their handlebars. This needed to be removed before a bicycle could be ridden.

When owners returned, their behaviour was secretly observed. There were no rubbish bins in the alley, so a cyclist had three choices. He could take the flyer with him, hang it on another bicycle (which the researchers counted as littering) or throw it to the floor. When the alley contained graffiti, 69% of the riders littered compared with 33% when the walls were clean."

Going by this theory, here is an answer to all those who think that cleaning up the streets of Mumbai is futile. If it were done, people would not see litter and would be that much more reluctant to be the ones who litter it.

It is high time. Lets keep our cities clean, then others will too.

"Government Spending to Save Businesses"

Owing to the financial meltdown many businesses are affected. Due to the fall in sales figures, many business are cutting down spending. Some are in such a bad state that they are going with a begging bowl to their governments for 'bailout' money. Automobile companies, banks, airlines - most industries have been hit badly and are pandering for major bailouts by the government.

In such a time of crisis, fearing a sharp decline in their sales and revenue streams, and fearing that they may be left out of the 'bailout money' handouts, the Mistresses and Extra-Marital Lovers Union (MEMLU) has approached the government asking for a bailout. Armed with a study by Prince and Assoc, the general secretary of MEMLU demanded that the bailout is necessary to keep the industry afloat.

Cost cutting by their consumers has been quoted as the major reason behind the industries woes. According to the survey,

"More than 80% of multimillionaires who had extra-marital lovers planned to cut back on their gifts and allowances. Still, only 12% of the multimillionaire cheaters said they plan to give up on their lovers altogether for financial reasons "

Experts from the government on the subject, however rejected MEMLU's demand citing improper estimates in the survey. "The survey has all its calculations wrong", said one government official, "We at the government are in touch with the consumers and the fall in demand is untrue; in fact my colleagues and I are confident that we can stimulate this market ourselves".

In response to a question about how the government is going to boost the souring demand in the business he said, "Government spending. Our government firmly beleives in Keynesian theories of spending by the state during a downturn and it is no different in this case." He also added that goverment officials will "personally ensure and step-in to help the industry not see the bad times".

Hat Tip to Greg Mankiw

Monday, November 24, 2008

The Valedictorian Administration

As Obama assembles his cabinet and his administration team an interesting observation has come to light. The new administration is going to be one which has a large number of very highly educated members. David Brooks, an op-ed columnist from the New York Times writes,

"Jan. 20, 2009, will be a historic day. Barack Obama (Columbia, Harvard Law) will take the oath of office as his wife, Michelle (Princeton, Harvard Law), looks on proudly. Nearby, his foreign policy advisers will stand beaming, including perhaps Hillary Clinton (Wellesley, Yale Law), Jim Steinberg (Harvard, Yale Law) and Susan Rice (Stanford, Oxford D. Phil.).

The domestic policy team will be there, too, including Jason Furman (Harvard, Harvard Ph.D.), Austan Goolsbee (Yale, M.I.T. Ph.D.), Blair Levin (Yale, Yale Law), Peter Orszag (Princeton, London School of Economics Ph.D.) and, of course, the White House Counsel Greg Craig (Harvard, Yale Law)."

For people like me who wanted Obama to lose the election, because of his left leaning, 'Socialistic' policies, this news of the centrist (atleast!) intelligentsia being at the helm of the administration is appealing. But for the sake of it, I can't resist poking fun at the new administration which looks like a reunion or alumni meet of the very best from the top Ivy League colleges in the World. In fact the same columnist also has this to say.

"If a foreign enemy attacks the United States during the Harvard-Yale game any time over the next four years, we’re screwed"

I should give more credit though to these 'Achieveatrons', after all, closer to home here in India we have some very well qualified people leading us - Dr. Manmohan Singh (Cambridge, Oxford. PH.d) and P. Chidambaram (University of Madras, Harvard MBA) - and we are not doing so bad! Right?
But, one more thing that comes to my mind is this - did you notice the number of lawyers who are there in the administration? Including the president-elect and the first lady, the count is 5 out of 9 members listed above. The actual numbers may be more. This reminds of this famous scene in the movie "The Devil's Advocate" with Al Pacino, the Devil Incarnate rants that he chose the profession of a lawyer becuase "The law puts us into everything." He goes on to say that there are more lawyers in law school than practising lawyers in the US and that "We are coming out. Guns blazing!"

Hmmm. I wonder if this is the actual second coming of you know who!

The Messiah or... ahem...

On a serious note, it is heartening to note that president elect is not veering so much to the left as many had feared/hoped he would. But still, there are some shortfalls in his selection of candidates. According to Mark Cuban, there is a lack of entreprenuers advicing Obama on his team. He writes,

"There are a lot of great minds on the list.

“Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, Laura Tyson, who served as Clinton’s top economic adviser; former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson; Time Warner Inc. Chairman Richard Parsons; former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman William Donaldson and Xerox Corp. Chief Executive Officer Anne Mulcahy.

Google Inc. CEO Eric Schmidt, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm and Roel Campos, an ex-SEC commissioner, and Warren Buffett are also on the advisory board.”

Notice anything missing ?

Not a single entrepreneur. Yes Warren Buffett started a business, but he will be the first to tell you that he “doesn’t do start ups”. Which means there isn’t a single person advising PE Obama that we know of that knows that its like to start and run a business in this or any economic climate. That’s a huge problem."

This is absolutely true. It is only thruough entreprenuerial vigor that one can see this battered economy regain its past glory and such calculated risk takers need to be fairly represented in the administration.

But then again, will entreprenuers want to get into politics and waste their time? They might be more interested in taking the 'worthwhile risks' in the Market rather than in the political arena!

Friday, November 21, 2008

SearchWiki by Google!

Google has launched a function called SearchWiki, which lets people customize their searches. Now, what it basically does is that it allows users to rate and 'rank-up' the search results based on their preferences, for personal consumption. While it does not affect the way others see the search results, it is an option to help users customize thier search results. The details of this is explained in the video below.

This is an interesting option and lets me customize what I want to see on the top of my search results, and a move towards a 'social networking' way of customizing and sharing my searches (and the comments I have about the content and relevance of the search results). But it still does not let my preference influence the overall search results others see. Nor does it help give me more targeted content. I have blogged previously about how a synergy between StumbleUpon and Google search results can help give better targeted content and advertising. You can read it here.

I agree with TechCrunch's call that this new addition, while being a move towards making it more interactive and social, will essentially be a test platform to see how to make searches better. Here is Michael Arrington saying,

But Google search wasn’t broken. It’s one of the few things on the Internet that isn’t. I love it, as does 62% of everyone on the Internet. This new stuff is a mess of arrows and troll comments and stuff moving around the page. That doesn’t make my search experience more useful. It makes it move to another search engine.

My guess is they’ve made the changes to see what kind of data they get, and how it can be used to make their overall search results better. So when Google says “The changes you make only affect your own searches,” I think they’re only being half-truthful. All this data, in aggregate, will certainly be used to improve Google search results in general.
This can also be a move towards changing the search paradigm from traffic based popularity ranking to a more content and page view friendly approach to search results. For instance, Google could use the data from SearchWiki to observe and rate websites which are 'ranked up' and based on the quality of comments make subjective, qualitative decisions about the popularity of content. While I don't forsee dramtic changes in search technology becuase of SearchWiki, it is an interesting development!

Up in smoke!

India's beedi makers are in trouble because of the smoking ban imposed by the Government. Mint reports that beedi makers have forecasted a job loss of 1 million in the industry because of the ban on smoking. The situation they find themselves in is funny.

“Things are looking quite bad. At one point, we even wanted to close down [production facilites] but that is impossible on account of the tough laws pertaining to closure. This (smoking) ban has made life quite difficult,” said [Ramesh] Patel
Thanks to the smoke and mirrors law which prevents smoking in 'public' places, the beedi industry is experiencing a fall in sales. But wait, thanks to the communists whom they pandered to before the smoking ban to help them 'compete' against the big tobacco companies, they are now not even able to cut their losses and bail out! The 'tough' laws preventing industries from retrenching its workers when experiencing the 'downturn' is a pet project of the CITU [Centre of Indian Trade Unions].

What makes their situation hilarious is that even their erstwhile supporters seem to have also ditched them. Mint reports,
"Pandhe, also the president of Centre of Indian Trade Unions (Citu), however, said the trade union will, however, not lend its support to beedimanufacturers. “People will smoke indoors if they want to and this will not impact their sales,” he noted "
There you have it. The very idealogical banner of protectionism has now come back and bit the beedi industry's behind!

I am not a smoker, but I think the ban on smoking is nonsense, simply because there is no way it can be implemented in a country such as ours. I daily see innumerable number of people 'flouting' the rule on the streets.

But, if you think this arguement is contradictory to the 'falling sales' arguement of the beedi manufacturers, think again. The market unfortunately runs on cues from the government. While the ban may not be effective because of it cannot be easily implemented, it has an impact on the industry value chain. The industry works because on various interconnected cogs. Farmers grow the tobacco, the beedi maker rolls the beedi, the distributor channels it and the retailer sells it. Due to the ban, while the consumer may not stop purchasing (the government argues that smokers will smoke at home and hence sales will not fall, although this may not be entirely true) the cost of making a beedi will rise. The farmer may not want to harvest tobacco fearing a fall in demand, the distributor may not channel it fearing fall in demand and the retailer may not stock it fearing that people may not buy it. This will eventually cause a fall in sales. Hence an entire industry value chain will fail.

I think the ban on smoking should be repealed. Instead a Pigouvian solution should be sought. It will make the industry either abandon a product which causes negative externalities, but still make it available for those who can 'afford' the negatives and pay for offsetting them. A market solution to the negative externality of smoking can be the only true solution.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

What kind of person does this blog make me?

Remember Organizational Behaviour subjects from college? With all the 'profiling' of personality types and group exercises to help understand psychological motivations, it used to almost seem like one was being racially profiled! Anyway, one of the types of profiling that is famous is called Myers Briggs Type Indicator. I was classified as INTP - Introverted iNituitive Thinking Perceiving type. I mostly agree with the classification and a website which specializes in predicting personality type by analyzing one's blog has also confirmed this. Here is type of person my blog makes me..
INTP - The Thinkers

The logical and analytical type. They are especialy attuned to difficult creative and intellectual challenges and always look for something more complex to dig into. They are great at finding subtle connections between things and imagine far-reaching implications.

They enjoy working with complex things using a lot of concepts and imaginative models of reality. Since they are not very good at seeing and understanding the needs of other people, they might come across as arrogant, impatient and insensitive to people that need some time to understand what they are talking about.
I just love the bit about how difficult I am to understand. Now I know why my colleague finds me so difficult the understand!

Hat Tip to Greg Mankiw for the website.

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